talking points

Tomorrow marks the beginning of the second half of the year. Which means, it's time for the Oscar race to begin. Start already! So far the competition is determinedly unexciting. Cinderella Man has pros (determined studio -watch for a revival, middlebrow triumph of human spirit appeal, Oscar-good-luck-charms Crowe & Zellweger) and cons (perceived as a flop, too typical, trying too hard, too early). Crash has pros (unexpected hit status, topical drama, the cast) and cons (early in year, unsubtle).

Over in the limited/platform world The Upside of Anger has pros (Joan Allen giving the year's best performance so far, two other films to bolster her appeal) and cons (might be forgotten without significant critical or preseason push, does the studio realize she's arguably the first half of the year's easiest acting nomination shot with the right campaign? whew, that was a long sentence). In Blockbuster land War of the Worlds and Batman Begins are the big shots for tech prizes... but both of those could lose out to other upcoming smashes and Christmas spectacles.

So how many nominees (any category) do you think we've seen so far? one? two? five?