Screen Actors Guild Nominations

Updated Post The SAG Nominations have now been announced. Guild nominations are essentially the final and most telling pieces of pre-Oscar prediction puzzles so once they announce you have the bulk of clues you're going to get before the Academy has its say names its nominees... Just how does this affect the predictions?

ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett -Elizabeth the Golden Age
Julie Christie -Away From Her
Marion Cotillard -La Vie En Rose
Angelina Jolie -A Mighty Heart
Ellen Page -Juno

This is probably your Oscar line up. But it's disappointing that actors, who use their imagination so frequently in their day jobs, have such poor imaginations when it comes time to judging acting. Blanchett's cartoon performance (Elizabeth) is not superior to Amy Adams cartoon performance (Enchanted) if you know what I mean... And that's just for starters. Cate's hurricane strips awards groups bare apparently. Even when they have other places to honor her in deserving ways (see: supporting)

ACTOR
George Clooney -Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis -There Will Be Blood
Ryan Gosling -Lars and the Real Girl
Emile Hirsch -Into the Wild
Viggo Mortensen -Eastern Promises

The surprise snub here is Johnny Depp as the demon barber in Sweeney Todd. But starpower for Depp and/or Washington (American Gangster) could still knock someone out of this interesting and respectable lineup (sigh) It's not my five but I'd be fine with this as the Oscar shortlist. Not a bad performance or even a truly mediocre one here.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett -I'm Not There
Ruby Dee -American Gangster
Catherine Keener -Into the Wild
Amy Ryan -Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton -Michael Clayton

Supporting Actress has been a question mark all year in one way or another and continues to be with this SAG announcement. Only Blanchett, Ryan and Swinton are named every time out. Those 4th and 5th slots are still highly competitive...We can now officially worry for little Saorsie Ronan (Atonement): typically SAG is even kinder to the young ones than Oscar itself. Not good news for her or Atonement today. Fighting for two volatile spots with Oscar: Ruby Dee, Kelly Macdonald, Saorsie Ronan, Vanessa Redgrave and Catherine Keener. Jennifer Jason Leigh (see: my interview) , Jennifer Garner and Marisa Tomei probably saw their last hopes dashed here with the SAG snubs.

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Casey Affleck -The Assassination of Jesse James
Javier Bardem -No Country For Old Men
Hal Holbrook -Into the Wild
Tommy Lee Jones -No Country For Old Men
Tom Wilkinson -Michael Clayton

This indicates end game for John Travolta in Hairspray (if it was going to happen, wouldn't SAG have played along?) But I still wouldn't count out Phillip Seymour Hoffman (Charlie Wilson's War) giving the boot to one of these superior performances. If there's a surprise coming --occassionally things that don't get any precursor love do end up in the Oscar shortlists-- your options are but two: Paul Dano (There Will Be Blood) and Max von Sydow (The Diving Bell and Butterfly)

ENSEMBLE
3:10 to Yuma
American Gangster
Hairspray
Into the Wild
No Country For Old Men

These don't look so bad as ensemble choices. I'm happy to see them think about what constitutes an ensemble as opposed to what means "Best Picture"

* Updates to Oscar pages later tonight. For now, have it out in the comments.