I'm such a contrarian. I know I'm SUPPOSED to say Dreamgirls, Babel, Bobby, Flags of Our Fathers, and The Good Shepherd. But you know how I do. If I ever just pick all the baitiest on paper stuff: shoot me. I'm trying to imagine scenarios and shifts of opinion that occur in a few months from now, so until things get serious: a bit of wishful thinking mixed with actual plausibility. It's only September ~ still having fun with the shuffling.
It's very important to remember that we no one knows as much as they think they do yet --we still haven't been able to factor in public reaction (box office & word of mouth), media reaction (they do pick favorites and they faun all over them. They also pick scapegoats), and even critical reaction (we've only heard from a few long lead people and the cinephiles who attend festivals. That's not entirely representative you know...
I know that I'm still "out there" on a few things but I enjoy offering things to chew on. Until the films premiere and the precursors begin it's wildly up in the air. The category I feel i'm terribly wrong in is Best Actor. But I gave up. It could go anywhere still. Good lord, Robin Williams could even be back.
New Predictions in Full
Read them over and discuss hot topics:
1. Will there be more than one Hispanic director nominated? There are at least four with strong films in the mix.
2. Which "sure thing(s)" will falter? Dreamgirls, Bobby, Flags of Our Fathers, the Good films?
3. Will either of the "Good" films (Shepherd & German) live up to hype? Nobody has seen either.
4. Does Universal Children of Men Christmas move mean they're clueless about how to sell it? Or might the shortlist hype be bonafide.
5. Will Little Children win them over despite it's non heartwarming nature? It'll be tough for the members who like "cozy".
6. Will Volver make Almodovar the new Kurosawa / Bergman/ Fellini? They use to give frequent love to favored foreign masters.
7. What currently hyped person or film is a total red herring? Not all buzz endures.
