New Oscar Predix: The Women

Post Toronto, it's time to rethink Oscar Predix. For some reason, even though it's boring and you sell papers and magazines with excitement, the media likes to confer "lock" and "no one can beat this!" status early in the race for each acting prize. Sometimes these memes take serious root and the Oscar contest becomes completely anticlimactic. Sometimes it doesn't.

BEST ACTRESS [full page o' details]
I like a bloody brawl for the statue, so I hope everyone ignores Mirren's supposed dominance. It's only mid-September. It's still anyone's game with the right box office, critical reaction, and (especially) Oscar campaign and networking.

new predictions:
Annette Bening Running With Scissors
Penelope Cruz Volver
Helen Mirren The Queen
Meryl Streep The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet Little Children

Streep and Mirren feel like sure things. The others? Not so much. I've swapped Ashley Judd out for Cruz because Bug (as much as I love the play) will probably be too challenging for them if its great and too genre for them if it's not. So it might be a lose/lose thing either way. Obviously Cruz will need Sony Pictures Classics to front a killer campaign for Volver to keep the Toronto momentum.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS [full page o' details]
I've completely reworked the field of contenders. I don't think we really know anything in this category just yet. (Apart from Jennifer Hudson in Dreamgirls but that was obvious (to me) long ago)

new predictions:
Abigail Breslin Little Miss Sunshine
Jill Clayburgh Running With Scissors
Jennifer Hudson Dreamgirls
Carmen Maura Volver
Emily Watson Miss Potter

I'm figuring it's impossible to root against Abigail Breslin ... unless your name is Dakota Fanning. And, ohmygod, I'd suggest being at least 20 miles away from her on Oscar nomination morning if Little Miss Sunshine really takes hold. j.k. luv ya Dakota!!! (My bodyguard told me to say that). Another thing working in Breslin's favor: This is the category that most favors young children. Next time Breslin races to a beauty pageant it'll be in a limo rather than a yellow van. And this pageant is held in Hollywood.

There's also some wishful thinking in this new lineup too (i.e. Carmen Maura) --I ain't gonna pretend that doesn't figure in. I'd suggest looking at the whole page. It's a mess. This category is cloudy.

Earlier Related Posts: From Emmy to Oscar: The Queen(s) * Mrs. Beatty * The Little Children Trailer * My Kate. My Self * A History of... Dakota Fanning * A Heavenly Creature: Kate Winslet * And I Am Telling You... I Want Credit * "That's All" * Favorites (so far): Actress * Favorites (so far): Supporting Actress * Top 100 Actresses of the Aughts *

Tags: Meryl Streep, Helen Mirren, Jennifer Hudson, Dakota Fanning,Oscars, films, Academy Awards, movies