But one thing that the new buzz reflects truthfully is that the race is always on. Oscar competition starts long before a film is released -- critical perceptions and audience reactions can never be controlled per se but they can be manipulated and managed, tweaked, anticipated, hyped or countered. This occurs in any number of ways from the moment of conception: the pre-production buzz (who is cast? is John Q Director right for the material?) to birth...
...(the first reviews and that nail biting opening weekend) to the toddler days when the film starts exhibiting its own personality, a product of both nature (filmmakers as proud parents) and nurture (pre-Oscar awards, media favoritism and industry and public discussions serving up the Environment).
And even if a golden hopefully is great and/or statue friendly (not always the same thing), there's the completely uncontrollable variable: what and who else is dancing around begging for the same attention? Fact: A year with 30 truly great lead performances will result in the same number of nominees as a year with only 7. This is why "locks" are so rare despite the ubiquity of the word in nearly every Oscar conversation.
That said, the following cute toddlers will surely be included in that invitation-only private school @ the Kodak Theater. They've made the race that much more difficult for any young film choosing to follow.
Animated Film - WALL•E. Only 2 spots left and they'll just be happy to be nominated.
Visual Effects - Iron Man. You know they'll honor it somewhere ... somewhere being right here. Only 2 spots left
Score -John Williams for Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull. Why would they stop now? He's been nominated for every single Indy outing. Only 4 spots left.
Acting - only 19 actors and actress need apply for the 20 spots.
Heath Ledger's Joker performance in The Dark Knight is still monumentally creepy to think about or be reminded of, isn't it? Eight weeks of ubiquity, often a great inoculation for hysterically praised work, haven't managed to dilute its feverish pull. That's an impressive feat and a performance that once seemed like a worthy "likely contender" is now a "lock". But we still don't know what this means for the larger Oscar picture. And it's all about the larger picture. "Supporting" is where Ledger's buzz first happened. But many voices are starting to shout for "Lead" status. The Joker's ghostly presence and penchant for chaos will affect future candidates and the Oscar race... but which one. Both? Pre-season can be filled with reversals... he could conceivable alter the chances of candidates in both categories as actors jockey for space and attention in the abundant pre-season honors. And does the desire to honor the late great young actor, pull the rest of the film and its achievements upwards and into the Kodak or not? It's also possible that the long haul to Oscar nominations (still 4 months away) could convince some voters that Ledger's posthumous nomination honor is reward enough for this Batman film. Honestly, what does Batman contribute to his own movie (this time around)?
Ledger's performance is already briskly jogging towards that January goal. Other competitors are still crawling. Penélope Cruz and Woody Allen's writing (the latter always somewhat in the running) could very well represent for Vicky Cristina Barcelona but neither are done deals and could be crowded out with ease if the fall films are especially strong. Richard Jenkins (The Visitor) Melissa Leo (Frozen River -previous article) will now be leaving the safe realm of the theoretically worthy and entering the real world of starry household name competitors and heavily funded movies. I love the arrival of the fall films. So many golden possibilities ahead. I personally can't wait to see what happens next. And you?
Oscar Prediction Revisions & Best Actress Psychic updates are coming round about September 20th (apologies for the long wait)
