Oscar Prediction Discussables, The Actors!

Immediately after I settled upon my Best Supporting Actor predictions...

• Christian Bale, The Fighter
  
• Ed Harris, The Way Back
• Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
• Brad Pitt, Tree of Life
• Justin Timberlake, The Social Network

I was like 'Nathaniel, MARK RUFFALO!???' Alas, I couldn't quite predict it. Sometimes wishful thinking is okay and other times it feels like jinxing something. I think Ruffalo is fab in The Kids Are All Right, but like most of his work there's something that I think reads too effortless about it for awards bodies. Voting bodies tend to prefer sweaty and effortful (one might say gimmicky and over the top) to easy nuanced naturalism.

The Timberlake thing is a wild card pic. I think the role sounds good and I like to take risks. Shut up. Read all about it. As a non fan of Geoffrey Rush (sorry!), I'm not excited about predicting him but it seems like a totally obvious call. Since he's already achieved showbiz's Triple Crown (if not the EGOT) I'm hoping we see some new blood in there like Ruffalo or Sam Rockwell or Vincent Cassel or Aaron Eckhart (who ostensibly has a leading role in Rabbit Hole but you never know with film versions and campaigns). That is, providing any of them are worthy of a nomination.

I'm sorry to be redundant but it's a point worth underlining. Oscar predictions are never preferences nor can they be. Until we see the films who knows which performances we should root for?

Over in Best Actor, I've ditched almost all the obvious Oscar Bait Names like Bridges, Depp, Clooney and Penn. I can't fully explain why. Maybe I'm thinking this year will be a little less redundant? I feel less confident in this category but sometimes you just type away about your foolish year-in-advance hunches and afterwards you're like "Self. You crazy!"

• Robert Duvall, Get Low
• Colin Farrell, The Way Back
• Colin Firth, The King's Speech
• Mel Gibson, The Beaver
• Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter

Obviously you should click over to the Best Actor Page to see the madness behind the calls.

As for Robert Duvall in Get Low....

I'm seeing the film this week but I've been skeptical despite all the huzzahs over last year's festival season. I think what happened was that when publicists get over enthusiastic it raises too many alarms with me. I remember one press release claiming that not just Duvall but Bill Murray and Sissy Spacek gave "the performance of their careers" and I'm like 'huh, what now? Better than Lost in Translation? Better than Carrie or Badlands or Coal Miner's Daughter or... I mean ' Have you seen how great Sissy Spacek is in several movies? So I immediately became VERY suspicious of the hype surrounding this film. Which is why I think that I've only predicted it for this sole nomination. I hope the film is all they're saying it is because I'm actually seeing it with the ol' gang from the podcast very soon.

Incidentally if you're semi new to following the Oscars (as I know some newish readers are) you should know that Duvall, missing from the Oscar field for a little over a decade now, is one of their all time favorites. In fact, he's just outside their Top Ten Ever. When it comes to male actors it breaks down like so:

Oscar's Favorite Men

1. Jack Nicholson (12 nominations, 3 wins)
2. Sir Laurence Olivier (10 nominations, 1 win)
3. Spencer Tracy (9 nominations, 2 wins)
4. Paul Newman (9 nominations, 1 win)
5. (tie) Marlon Brando and Jack Lemmon (8 nominations, 2 wins)
6. Al Pacino (8 nominations, 1 win)
7. Peter O'Toole (8 nominations, 0 wins)
8. Dustin Hoffman (7 nominations, 2 wins)
9. Richard Burton (7 nominations, 0 wins)
10. (tie) Michael Caine and Robert DeNiro (6 nominations, 2 wins)
11. Robert Duvall (6 nominations, 1 win)
    

Who are you excited about this year in the male acting categories?
And what do you think of this first batch of predictions? [complete prediction list thus far]