Oscar Predictions: Acting, Lead and Otherwise

Obviously my early September Oscar predictions went the way of vinyl and VHS once Toronto and Venice and the flurry of shifting distribution fates hit. This happens at the end of September and in early October every year but it's always disorienting... at least for me. Maybe you're less driven mad by it than I. 'You mean this brand new movie that got incredible raves and dream buzz is going to wait 10 more months for release and this other movie that everyone had given up on and isn't all that excited about is now opening in two weeks. okaaayyyy, crazy distributor people. You do what you gotta do.'

Clooney and Day-Lewis discuss Oscar warm-up rituals

In Best Actor, I'm still holding on to my gamble that Oscar voters don't want to get mushy or frisky with Daniel Day-Lewis in Nine (he never gets nominated for his "soft" movies) but it's starting to feel like a lose-the-house bet with so little in the way of Best Actor heavyweights. Damn it! I really thought I was going to look brilliant when Oscar nomination rolled around and they skipped DDL. But maybe not. Oopsie. Anyway, could Colin Firth in A Single Man really be the frontrunner, now that he's emerged from festival season so super-charged? It was so sudden and so... unexpected. Or maybe it's George Clooney for Up in the Air though a second Oscar in four years seems overly kind.

Over in Best Supporting Actor there's less drama. I hate when you think you've found the lineup as early as October. Something of note needs to happen soon. The only dramatic question is "who could win?" because that does seem like a question with five answers (for now).

We discussed Best Supporting Actress last week. Since then I'm aware that the talk about putting Marion Cotillard into lead for Nine is gaining momentum. If the studio actually does go through with this once the FYC drum-beating begins I think it a huge mistake. One, the Best Actress category is super competitive this year (wheee!) and Two, even if you give Cotillard a few more songs in Nine it's still a story with one lead, being about a man and his intense relationships to women, plural. They'd be sacrificing one potential nod for another. Doesn't make much sense... unless Cotillard's handlers are greedy/delusional and actually think they can win her two nominations for Nine (lead) and Public Enemies (supporting). And, well, I guess she has beaten considerable odds before.

A friendly pre-season luncheon. Drinks with Lea, Julia and Amelia

Each of these updated acting pages has adjusted text and predictions, though a few things haven't changed. I still insist that Best Actress is only a Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia) vs. Carey Mulligan (An Education) duel... and the other three nominations will be hard fought. More categories to come tomorrow or over the next couple of days depending on how the time flies.

ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | DIRECTOR | BEST PICTURE | FOREIGN FILM

Return and report: What do you think we already know? Which category do you proclaim a total mystery?
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