I'll be updating all my Oscar predictions over the next couple of days [update: ten categories complete, including the big 8] but before I can even think about what might be what... I figured it might be wise to glance at the intended calendar again. The following releases, should they stay where they are, will determine Oscar discussions and directions even if some of them reveal themselves as red herrings. These are the titles and (supposed) timeframes to wait for.
July is all about populist pull.
Can WALL•E maintain its buzz all summer long? If it does it could turn into something more than merely the animated film lock. Can The Dark Knight do the proper math in its Oscar campaign: The steady ascendance of director Chris Nolan + public grief over Heath Ledger + the complete pop cultural dominance of the superhero genre + Batman's history as the most Oscar respected superhero franchise to = multiple Oscar nominations? I think it's more possible than we think... especially if the more traditional players are underwhelming. There's eventually a first time for everything including a superhero picture up for Best Picture and Best Director. Finally, can Meryl Streep have another Prada sized hit with Mamma Mia! and if so, will she have another go at a third Oscar by way of a comedic role?
August is all about Woody Allen. Match Point didn't pan out with Oscar in the way some expected, though it was a financial success. Can Vicky Christina Barcelona deliver that long expected Oscar comeback?
September is all about the longshots/wildcards. The Coen Bros return with the comedy Burn After Reading but given the genre the best it could probably hope for is a screenplay or supporting nod (if anyone is widely considered to be best in show). There's also the costume drama The Duchess, the western Appaloosa, the Spike Lee WW II joint Miracle at St. Anna and the sudsy reteam of Unfaithful lovers Richard Gere and Diane Lane in Nights in Rodanthe. September isn't really prime gold man real estate but if something breaks out and gets people talking a nomination here or there is always possible (think the last two David Cronenberg pictures)
October is a mixed bag o' maybe. Can Ridley Scott's CIA drama House of Lies (formerly titled "Body of Lies") sustain awards buzz more successfully than American Gangster did? Can Oliver Stone regain his creative mojo on W. --and if he does are the actors heading for biopic-centered acting nominations? -- or is the whole project doomed by timing and taste level problems? Will Angelina Jolie's turn in Changeling be as big of a deal for her and Clint Eastwood as it was in Cannes? Will Mike Leigh's Happy-Go-Lucky be more of a Career Girls situation (no Oscar interest) a Vera Drake situation (some Oscar interest) or a Secrets & Lies deal (major attention paid). Time will tell.
November is all about BIG Oscar Bait. Australia is the closest thing we're getting to an Old Hollywood epic. Will they be in the mood for it? It'll surely stand out. Will the Harvey Milk biopic Milk give them an odd indirect chance to apologize for that Brokeback Mountain fumble? And even if it doesn't... it could still play strictly on their love of biopics (AMPAS' absolute favorite genre, bar none. Even WWII dramas aren't as reliable at chatching their fancy) Is The Soloist any good? Synopses read like a parody of Oscar Bait projects... like it's covering all bases to win gold.
December is all about the GLUT. Same as it ever was. Expected big ticket Oscar hopefuls include: Ron Howard's adaptation of the TONY winning Frost/Nixon, Edward Zwick's WW II drama Defiance, John Patrick Shanley's Pulitzer prize winning Doubt, David Fincher's epic The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Sam Mendes reuniting the Titanic lovers in Revolutionary Road and Clint Eastwood's Gran Turino. TBA. As per usual there are a lot of films that are playing it very quiet OR they don't have distribution OR they don't have set in stone release plans OR nobody knows what to do with them OR they'll get dropped into the December glut with little chance or registering OR they'll get shoved into 2009 at the last second OR some combination of the above. I'm so helpful I know. They are: WW II literary adaptation The Reader, Steven Soderbergh's Che Guevara Project, Charlie Kauffman's Synechdoche New York, Richard Eyre's The Other Man, Jim Sheridan's Brothers and actressy projects like Grey Gardens, The Young Victoria and Rod Lurie's Nothing but the Truth (with Vera Farmiga and Kate Beckinsale)
How are you feeling about this calendar of movies? Are you even in that headspace yet?
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How are you feeling about this calendar of movies? Are you even in that headspace yet?
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