2009 Oscar Predictions, The Actors

We've chatted about the women. Now it's time for the men.

I'll start with the big omission news. I know most every Oscar pundit is predicting Daniel Day-Lewis for Nine (the Musical) but I think they're all forgetting an important and peculiar truth: DDL does not get nominated for performances that center around his romantic relationships. Even when the Academy likes the film.

Consider...

• A Room With a View (1986) 8 noms/3 wins
  
• My Beautiful Laundrette (1986) 1 nomination.
  He wasn't a known commodity in 86 but his double dip was incredibly chameleonic. And in two movies that were raved far and wide and that Oscar voters liked.
• The Last of the Mohicans (1992) 1 nom/1 win.
  Certainly one of the most bizarre Oscar snubbings ever for an entire film. It was epic, beautiful, period, popular and moving. And it got one nomination... for sound?
  
• The Unbearable Lightness of Being (1988) 2 nominations
  
• The Age of Innocence (1993) 5 noms/ 1 win
  
• The Crucible (1996) 2 nominations
  

Oscar loves Day-Lewis when he's malevolently masculine (Gangs and There Will Be Blood) or when he's starring in biopics (Left Foot, In the Name of...). But when he's romancing the ladies? "No thanks!" says the average voter. Even when the romance is a "wow" (Mohicans) or when the movie manages an acting nomination (Crucible, Innocence) they still pass. I'm not seeing it. Here are my BEST ACTOR predictions.

I generally do well at Actor predictions this early, managing 2 or 3 of the 5. Yet Best Actor was hard to suss out beyond Morgan Freeman this year. He's the only person in any category you can probably ink in already. Revered actor playing famous recognizable role + Eastwood + bio elements (though thankfully it focuses on one time period) = they will go nuts.

Supporting Actor was far more difficult. And for the obvious reasons of 'what the hell?' who is playing who? will the films be any good? In other words, we know little. So here's my stab in the dark when it comes to the men who will be recognized for boosting the appeal of movies much bigger than their roles. I'm guessing on a double nomination for Matt Damon. Why not?

I'd really love to hear your opinions for Supporting Actor because I wouldn't be surprised at all to be 100% wrong for 2009. This tends to be my worst acting category for 'year in advance' predix. I score either 1 or 2 out of 5. I've never hit 3/5 this early like I have in the other categories.

Still, if I'm right about the general field (if not the big contenders) we're going to see a lot of first time nominees this year in the supporting actor category.
*
*