Emily Blunt, Keira Knightley and Tilda Swinton on BAFTA's red carpet. Kate Winslet at the BAFTA/LA event across the water.
With the biggest movie awards night less than a fortnight away, common wisdom has the big six Oscars going like so...
Pic: No Country For Old Men
Dir: The Coen Bros (more locked up than for pic itself)
Actor: Day-Lewis
Supp Actor: Bardem
Actress: Christie... um Cotillard? ...maybe Page sneaks?
Supporting Actress: Cate Blanchett --no wait, Ruby Dee! But Amy Ryan... here comes Tilda Swinton...omg, could Saoirse Ronan actually surprise? It's the only race where all five nominees feel like true possibilities.
pssst (remember to vote on your preference but clicking any of the category links above!)
Yes, the ladies are proving unruly. Or at least this weekend's BAFTA awards would have us believe so. So, time to do some digging. How well does BAFTA correlate to Oscar? It's more complicated than just "does it match" since the nominees are different and in some cases, the year doesn't even line up. I've only gone back to 2000 because prior to that BAFTA only had 4 nominees in the acting categories and they took place after the Oscars.BAFTA Lead Actress
Can Cotillard repeat? She's looking like a stronger spoiler possibility for the grand Julie Christie (Away From Her) than we expected. The media seemed to be leaning towards Page as the spoiler until this past week. Christie has won the majority of prizes but it's been nothing like a Mirren size "sweep" which leads one to wonder... why the backlash she seems to be facing? I'm none too pleased about this though the internet throngs will be happy as clams. In Marion's favor: When BAFTA varies from Oscar (in blue) it's only been in years when the eventual Oscar winner was not up for the BAFTA. The only nominee who qualifies: Laura Linney (The Savages) for that upset statistic. In Christie's favor: There is only 7 years of history to draw from and that is very little to base "always" and "never" and any statistics on, you know.
2007 Marion Cotillard in La Vie En Rose
Nomination similarity to Oscar: 4/5
2006 Helen Mirren for The Queen
She won all but one media covered prize in the world. It wasn't a race so much as a slow royal waving parade through awards land... 'Yes, you may worship me.'
Nomination similarity to Oscar: 5/5
2005 Reese Witherspoon in Walk the Line
Nomination similarity to Oscar: 3/5
2004 Imelda Staunton for Vera Drake
She won this prize but her late surge was not enough to defeat Hilary Swank's Million Dollar Baby. However, Swank and Bening (her cheif rivals that year in America) were not nominated. Staunton only had to overcome a vote splitting Kate Winslet (BAFTA allows dual nominations in the same acting category. Oscar does not) and the previous year's Oscar winner Charlize Theron (Monster). Many pundits believe that Staunton would have won the Oscar that year, too if the voting had been a month later as the media might have tired of the Bening/Swank rematch and Staunton's momentum could've happened a little sooner.
Nomination similarity to Oscar: 2/5
2003 Scarlett Johansson for Lost in TranslationThe winner was not Oscar nominated but then only one of BAFTA's nominees (Naomi Watts in 21 Grams) was. 2003 was unarguably the most volatile Best Actress year from the past decade of awards history. As many as 12 different women seemed possible for quite some time for the coveted shortlist positions. The confusion resulted in a surprising Best Actress lineup that bore little resemblance to precursor "guessing"
2002 Nicole Kidman for The Hours
In a rare year that was very similar to the Oscar lineup (only Julianne Moore in Far From Heaven was missing) Kidman won both.
2001 Judi Dench in Iris
Oscar winning Halle Berry (Monster's Ball) was not nominated.
Nomination similarity to Oscar: 3/5
2000 Julia Roberts in Erin Brockovich
Beat out the 99 Oscar winner Hilary Swank in Boy's Don't Cry. Even though BAFTA has very similar taste in Best Actress winners, they shun the ones who weren't eligible in the same year... more backup for the argument that awards are mostly about timing, not the acting.
Nomination similarity to Oscar: 2/5
SUPPORTING ACTRESSCan Tilda Swinton repeat her surprise BAFTA win and take this year's Supporting Actress Oscar? The history looks promising for the red headed icon and it would be a way to reward a film (Michael Clayton) the Academy loves that could go home empty-handed otherwise. Two worrisome things for Tilda though:
1. In each of the years when BAFTA matched Oscar (in red), there was a clear frontrunner who was winning everything. This is the first thing she's won.
2. In each of the year's when BAFTA did not choose the same winner (in blue) the eventual Oscar winner was not nominated for the BAFTA in that category. So if Tilda doesn't win, that's good news for Ruby Dee and Amy Ryan and very bad news for Cate Blanchett and Saoirse Ronan. So, if you trust in BAFTA --a short term statistic --the Oscar race is between Swinton, Dee and Ryan.
2007 Tilda Swinton in Michael Clayton Nomination similarity to Oscar: 3/5 (Ruby Dee & Amy Ryan are not nominated)
2006 Jennifer Hudson in Dreamgirls
Nomination similarity to Oscar: 2/5
2005 Thandie Newton in Crash (pictured to the right from last weekend's event)
This is the only time in BAFTA's "precursor" history that their supporting actress winner was not even nominated for the Oscar. The actual Oscar winner (Rachel Weisz) was nominated in BAFTA's lead category. Nomination similarity to Oscar: 3/5
2004 Cate Blanchett in The Aviator Nomination similarity to Oscar: 2/5
2003 Renée Zellweger in Cold Mountain Similarity to Oscar: 2/5
2002 Catherine Zeta Jones in Chicago Similarity to Oscar: 4/5
2001 Jennifer Connelly in A Beautiful Mind Similarity to Oscar: 5/5
2000 Julie Walters in Billy Elliott The Oscar winner (Marcia Gay Harden for Pollock) was not nominated. BAFTA and Oscar lined up: 3/5
Your turn: Do you think the BAFTA wins for the ladies mean anything? Especially since both men seem more than locked up for Oscar wins (would Oscar really go 4/4 match?) Or do you think that with AMPAS ballots due in less than a week that most of them are turned in already and BAFTA only reflects voting prejudices over the pond?
