Ten Things That Make Early Oscar Predictions Difficult
If you're super impatient you can move on to the actual predictions
If you're super impatient you can move on to the actual predictions
10 IMDB doesn't always list complete credits for a film... even when it looks like they do. For instance, in some cases you can't tell who shot a particular movie or who scored it, or who did the costumes. Who did what is important since there are Meryls and Denzels amongst the technical crowd, too, you know --nomination magnets, as it were.09 Not knowing which companies will be releasing certain films is difficult. Films that look great on paper that have undefined (or unshared) distribution plans include presumable actor showcases like biopics Grey Gardens and The Young Victoria as well as marital dramas like Richard Eyre's The Other Man and Jim Sheridan's remake of the Danish film Brothers. Who pushes which movie matters. Not all distributors are created equal. At least not where Oscar is concerned.
08 Stephen Daldry has thrilled Oscar voters twice before with Billy Elliott and The Hours. His new film The Reader has a WW II backstory --something that often lights AMPAS's collective fire. But will he finish it in time? The Hours was delayed by a year and this new movie also lost its producer Anthony Minghella (RIP).
07 The Weinsteins have what looks like a great slate this year. Vicky Christina Barcelona, The Reader, The Brothers Bloom. But they've been bad at courting Oscar lately? And even if Vicky is good Woody Allen and even if Cruz is great (in what sounds like a fun if typically misogynist Allen-written role) and even if they figure out how to sell it, is Oscar over Woody Allen?06 No matter how good you are at Oscar predicting, no matter how much research you do, you're never going to see the Junos coming... those little non-baity films that turn miraculously into behemoths.
05 The supporting categories. They're usually foggy until very late in the year. A lot of early buzz only focuses on lead performers and general plotlines. Those with smaller roles have to prove themselves when the picture opens.
image from AnneHathawayFan.com03 Clint Eastwood, who loves making movies quickly almost as much as he loves winning Oscars, has a movie for November (Changeling) and December (Gran Turino). There are many rumors about Gran Turino (the strangest of which is that it's actually a new Dirty Harry picture) but when all details are secret it could just as easily be one for the crowds rather than something prestige for the Academy. He doesn't only make Million Dollar Babies. He also makes True Crimes and Blood Works.
02 Steven Soderbergh's two part Che Guevera epic. The first half is called The Argentine and the second Guerilla. Will they actually release both halves this year? If they do will they only campaign one? If they only release The Argentine and the Academy likes it, will they wait to honor it until part two?01 The act of predicting Oscars in April is insane.
The first step is knowing you have a problem...
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