Foolish Golden Globe Predictions

Best Picture Drama

• The Hurt Locker
  
• Inglourious Basterds
• The Last Station
  
• Precious
• Up in the Air
  

The Globes sometimes throw in really interesting critical darlings that don't have much of a shot at Oscar (like Mulholland Drive or Eastern Promises) and sometimes they latch on to brand new movies that nobody cares about the next day (The Great Debaters) so, really, who the hell knows?!? Which is why I'm just tossing up my hands and predicting The Last Station. But honestly it feels like there's about 12 pictures that might be nominated. You could even see The Road surprising (they have a documented thing for Viggo) The reason I'm ignoring Avatar is that it just barely started screening. I don't know when the HFPA starting voting but the BFCA ballots, for example, were due on Saturday, roughly 36 hours after the first Avatar screenings... at least here in NYC. And based on when the online reports starting pouring in I suspect LA wasn't able to see Avatar much earlier. I know for certain from speaking to critics from various voting bodies that some of them had to turn in ballots before Avatar had ever screened.

Best Picture Comedy/Musical

• (500) Days of Summer
• It's Complicated
• Julie & Julia
• Nine
• A Serious Man
  

There are several ways this could go. I'm not sure why I'm ignoring The Proposal, The Hangover or In the Loop. Must my predictions make sense? Back off! I wanted to throw caution to the wind and stick Sherlock Holmes in there but I couldn't decide what to spurn. It is brand new and they're sometimes totally in-the-moment. I'm really rooting for (500) Days to win attention outside of indie type prizes and if it's going to it starts here. I'm still surprised it didn't blossom into a bigger hit with the public.

Best Director

• Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
• Clint Eastwood, Invictus
• Rob Marshall, Nine
• Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
• Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

They like "name" directors so I'm throwing Eastwood in even though I'm (foolishly) not predicting Invictus for a spot on their BP list.

Best Actress, Drama

• Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
• Helen Mirren, The Last Station
• Carey Mulligan, An Education
• Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
• Hilary Swank, Amelia
  

I'm throwing Swank in instead of Abbie Cornish (Bright Star) because I'm a masochist and sometimes the Globes truly punish me for loving them as I do. It's like they're continually daring me to break up with them. Think of all those years they stayed devoted to my other nemesis the Zeéeeee!

there's probably only room for one of these guys... which?

Best Actor, Drama

• Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
• George Clooney, Up in the Air
• Colin Firth, A Single Man
• Morgan Freeman, Invictus
• Tobey Maguire, Brothers
  

I suspect there'll be one big surprise here. So I went with Maguire in Brothers since I did see a gazillion HFPA voters fawning all over him at a Brothers event. I'm rooting for rising dependable thespians like Jeremy Renner in The Hurt Locker or Sam Rockwell in Moon to surprise here but I suspect the Globes obvious preference for household names means that we'll hear one of these three names called: Tobey, Viggo (The Road) or Johnny (Public Enemies) when the nominations are announced tomorrow. Am I crazy?

Best Actress, Comedy

• Marion Cotillard, Nine
• Zooey Deschanel, (500) Days of Summer
  
• Michelle Pfeiffer, Chéri
  
• Meryl Streep, It's Complicated
• Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
  

Common wisdom has it that the Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy Globe has been narrowed down to a double dose of La Streep, "Luisa Contini", and a certain resurgent romcom queen leaving very little room -- 1 spot actually -- for anyone else. So the Globes are going to have to choose between big stars of the moment like Amy Adams or indie darlings like Zooey or fall back on old favorites like a Sarah Jessica Parker or a Michelle Pfeiffer. At this point nobody is really talking about Chéri but it might (very tentative might) not be wise to count Pfeiffer out, even without the schmoozing factor that can help you secure a Globe nod. "Why?" You ask wisely in an already crowded field "One reason" I respond. "Globe history."


There was a time where she could do no wrong with them: she was nominated six consecutive times for Best Actress (1989-1994) a feat that, as far as I recall, has never been matched. Not even by Meryl Streep (who has far more nominations in total --23!-- but not consecutively for best actress in a motion picture). On the other hand: They passed Michelle over when she really needed them for White Oleander (2002) in favor of a totally throwaway performance (Cameron Diaz in Gangs of New York) so 1994 may well be ancient history for which they have no nostalgia whatsoever. To make a long story short: I'm being silly and guessing that they ignore Bullock (who they can nominate elsewhere in drama) and go for a former flame. Hooray, wishful thinking!

Best Actor Comedy

• Bradley Cooper, The Hangover
• Matt Damon, The Informant!
• Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine
• Robert Downey Jr., Sherlock Holmes
  
• Joseph Gordon-Levitt, (500) Days of Summer
  

I'm sure I'm forgetting someone. Why else would this one seem so easy?

Best Supporting Actress

• Mariah Carey, Precious
• Penélope Cruz, Nine
• Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
• Julianne Moore, A Single Man
• Mo'Nique, Precious
  

I know, I know... but it would be rather like the Globes to embrace a huge pop star that Oscar won't go for so I'm saying the surprise is Carey in Precious. Look, unlike many prognosticators I don't care too much about my success ratio. I'm way more interested in teasing out the 'what if' possibilities. And they've previously nominated Beyoncé, Courtney Love and Madonna so why not risk it?

Best Supporting Actor

• Alec Baldwin, It's Complicated
• Matt Damon, Invictus
• Alfred Molina, An Education
• Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
  
• Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
  

If there's a surprise omission here I think we might see, or rather, not see Alfred Molina. We've been taking his candidacy for granted. The Globes might say we've overestimated his Oscar chances. I also wonder if they might shove Baldwin into the lead actor comedy category.

Still more...

Screenplay: An Education, Inglourious Basterds, The Last Station, Precious, Up in the Air
Animated Feature: Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs, Coraline, Fantastic Mr. Fox, Ponyo, Up
Song: "Weary Kind" Crazy Heart, "I See in Color" Precious, "Cinema Italiano" Nine, "Take it All" Nine, "All is Love" Where the Wild Things Are
Score: Avatar, Coco Avant Chanel, The Informant!, The Princess and the Frog, Up

Those final ones are all kind of tossed off. Predicting is exhausting and tomorrow it's obsolete anyway. Stay tuned.

More would be Globe prophets...
And the Winner Is... predicts a shutout for The Hangover
Oscars Latin predicts... Ryan Reynolds for The Proposal (!)
Abzee predicts... Michelle Pfeiffer for Chéri
Crumb by Crumb sees snubs for both Precious and An Education in Best Picture